The situation in India is not optimistic: cases are rising rapidly and medical resources are in short supply

The prevention and control situation in India is not optimistic: cases are rising rapidly and medical resources are in short supply

As the virus continues to spread overseas, India, the world's second most populous country, has attracted much attention for its development and prevention and control situation. A reporter from Reference News learned that India's domestic development is currently entering a critical period of transition from overseas imports to internal community transmission. Considering the population density, medical and health resources, and the already deteriorating economy in India, it is difficult to be optimistic about its prevention and control situation in the future.

Development presents three major characteristics

By combing through the relevant data, it can be seen that the development in India has at least three major characteristics.

First, the number of confirmed cases increased rapidly in a short period of time. As early as the end of January and the beginning of February, three patients were reported in Kerala, southern India, which were discovered in the country. After a month of "window period", on March 2, the Indian health department once again reported three new confirmed cases nationwide. Then on March 4, the number of confirmed cases nationwide suddenly increased to 29. In the following 10 days, the cumulative number of confirmed cases nationwide broke through the 30, 50 and 80 mark. Official data showed that as of 11:30 p.m. local time on March 15, India had a total of 110 confirmed cases, including 13 cases and 2 deaths.

Secondly, the majority of cases are imported from abroad. Among the cumulative confirmed cases in India, imported cases still account for the majority. A typical example is the report on March 4, in which 14 people in an Italian tour group of more than 20 people were diagnosed as patients at one time.

▲On March 13, people wore masks while traveling in a subway station in New Delhi, India. Photo by Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Javed Dar)

Third, local community transmission is looming. It is understood that more than 10 states and regions in India have reported cases, including the densely populated Uttar Pradesh, the economically developed Maharashtra, and the remote Kashmir region. Among the big cities, New Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai have been "infected" one after another. Community or family cluster transmission has occurred in some places.

Balram Bhargava, head of the Indian Council of Medical Research, said in an interview on the 14th that the current spread in India is still limited to cases with a history of travel to epidemic countries and close contacts of these cases. He said that if the response is not appropriate, community transmission may be difficult to avoid, and India has a time window of 30 days.

▲On March 13, in New Delhi, India, staff members carried out disinfection and epidemic prevention in the subway station. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Javed Dar)

Chinese companies overcome difficulties to ensure supply chain

The virus continues to spread in India, and the impact is gradually emerging. Taking Mumbai, where the reporter is located, as an example, many local communities have posted notices to warn citizens; people have begun to line up to buy daily necessities, especially cleaning supplies, in supermarkets near the community, and security guards and other staff have also put on masks; earlier, Maharashtra, where Mumbai is located, has announced the temporary closure of gyms and cinemas.

The reporter saw on the street that although most pedestrians still did not wear masks, masks and disinfectants that were usually easily available in local pharmacies were out of stock, and even the stores with limited supply raised the price by about 10 times. Locals said that the shortage of masks showed that some citizens began to stockpile supplies to cope with the situation, but it could not be ruled out that some businesses were hoarding and taking advantage of the situation.

The reporter visited some Chinese companies' project sites in India and learned that although personnel exchanges were affected, Chinese companies still overcame many difficulties and strived to ensure the stability of the supply chain.

▲On March 9, people wore masks when going out at a school in Kerala, India. Photo by Javed Dar, Xinhua News Agency

At the Metro Line 1 project site of CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive Co., Ltd. in New Mumbai, India, staff asked all visitors to register first, filling in personal information and whether they had recently traveled to the country where the virus occurred. In the office, relevant promotional materials were posted on the wall, introducing the virus's transmission routes, symptoms, prevention measures and means in text and graphic form.

Indian employee Vinaishi Kumar told reporters that some of the company's Chinese employees in India were unable to return to India in time after returning to China during the Spring Festival. At first, he was a little worried that the progress of the project would be affected, but the Chinese headquarters still overcame the difficulties and sent subway vehicles and related accessories on time. They are currently being debugged in full swing.

Ding Ci, technical manager of the project department of CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive Co., Ltd. in India, said that all eight trains for the New Mumbai Metro Line 1 have been put in place. "Now we have to prevent and control on the one hand, and promote the project on the other. The challenges have increased, but we will do our best to ensure that all work proceeds normally."

Prevention and control combined with political and economic challenges

On March 11, the World Health Organization announced that the virus had pandemic characteristics. Almost at the same time, India announced that from March 13 to April 15, except for some diplomatic personnel, no other people with valid visas would be allowed to enter India. This move was called "closing the country" by netizens; on the afternoon of the 15th, India's Modi held a video conference with the heads of state or health departments of other South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries to discuss the regional anti-epidemic plan.

India has been stepping up its epidemic prevention measures for some time, but considering the reality of domestic population density, medical and health resources, etc., the future prevention and control situation is not optimistic. It may even be compounded by the already deteriorating economic and social situation, bringing more severe challenges to the authorities.

▲On March 12, soldiers wore masks while on duty at Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi, India. India announced on the evening of the 11th that from March 13 to April 15, except for some diplomatic personnel, India will temporarily not allow entry to other people with valid visas. Xinhua News Agency (Javed Dar Photo)

First, India has a high population density, many religions, and high community risk. Take Mumbai, the financial center, for example. Its metropolitan area has a population of more than 20 million, and a large number of people travel by train every day. In the Dharavi slum, more than 1 million people live in an area of more than 200 hectares. In addition, there are many religious beliefs. These all increase the community transmission risk index.

Secondly, the medical and health shortcomings are obvious, and the prevention and control system is weak. According to official Indian information, there are currently 52 designated testing institutions and 57 sampling institutions in India. Due to limited testing capabilities, some people question India's official data. Media reports have previously shown that outbound passengers from India were diagnosed as cases in Hong Kong and Bhutan, which also shows its prevention and control loopholes.

▲On March 12, at the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi, India, a woman wearing a mask sat on a trolley. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Javed Dar)

, and multiple economic challenges overlap. On March 6, former Indian Prime Minister Singh published a signed article in The Hindu, pointing out that India may face multiple challenges, including internal social unrest, economic recession, and external shocks. Before the article was published, the escalation of the unrest caused by the amendment to the Citizenship Act had caused at least dozens of deaths since the end of last year; weak domestic demand and deep dystocia led to a continuous decline in economic growth. As the article predicted, with the spread, the internal and external pressures on India's economic development continued to increase. On March 13, its stock market triggered a circuit breaker, and trading was suspended for 45 minutes.

It is believed that the current prevention and control situation in India is severe. For now, the real challenge may not yet come.